Terror on the Rise: What the increase in terrorism charges in Canada can tell us about the threat

The terrorist threat in Canada has rarely been higher

The terrorist attack in New Orleans this year has reignited the discussion about terrorism in the US, and, by extension, Canada. Some media outlets have talked about the return of ISIL (they never went away), while some experts have talked about the complex threat level. I decided to turn to our data to figure out what the terrorism threat looks like in Canada.¹

For the last six months or so, the team at Insight Threat Intelligence has been working on building a few different datasets. You’ve seen the results of some of these: we’re now able to release data on trends in terrorist financing methods, as well as data about terrorist incidents in Canada. Today, we’re releasing data on terrorism charges in Canada. This data is still preliminary, and we’re continuing to add to it. However, in the context of a spate of arrests at the end of 2024, we thought providing additional context with this data would be useful.

The bottom line: Terrorism in Canada is on the rise, illustrated by increasing attacks and charges and fueled by a volatile mix of geopolitical tensions and growing radicalization across ideological lines.

Terrorism charges in Canada are an important indicator of the terrorist threat in Canada. Terrorist incidents (attacks, travel) provide some insight into the terrorist threat, but disrupted terrorist activity, often represented by terrorism arrests and charges, offers additional insight into terrorist activity within our borders. This information can help us understand where our counterterrorism efforts are succeeding, where they are falling short, and what more needs to be done.

The Data

Between 2007 and 2024, there have been 73 terrorism charges in Canada.² (I started my analysis after the anomalous year of 2006, in which the “Toronto 18” were charged.) Since 2007, there has been a statistically significant increase in terrorism charges, illustrated in the figure below.³

Source: Insight Threat Intelligence data

New book alert: The Toronto 18 Terrorism Trials

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